
Last month we encouraged you to look again at your market strategy, this month the theme is more defensive concentrating on how to protect the sales and revenues that you have made.
Any business advisers would be able to tell you numerous stories of seemingly successful business going bust or running into serious financial trouble. The order book can be healthy and the forecast for profitability good, but in the short-term the company runs out of cash, find they can't pay the bills as they fall due and then the trouble starts.
A major customer, or for that matter a significant number of smaller ones, delaying payment or defaulting is a real risk in a tough trading climate particularly when bank funding is tight. Nothing you can do about that, I hear you say! If your business is overly exposed to one or two really big customers you need to watch them carefully for signs that they are in trouble - news (even gossip), listening for tell-tale signals from your contacts in the customer's business. Sounds like paranoia, but such events are rarely sudden, and it's your money that is at stake.
Reliance on one key customer is quite common and in the longer-term such businesses should develop a strategy to create a more balanced customer portfolio.
You should plan for an increase in debtor days and bad debt anyway, which means that you will need the working capital to cover this. Having a strategy which simply relies on you delaying paying your own creditors is not sustainable.
Creating a simple cash budget (see the Peterborough Workspace Newsletters from March and April 2008) will allow you to forecast the effect on your bank balance if and when customers slow down payments. Forecast for a percentage of your debtors to default i.e. you might allow for 5% of debtors as a bad & doubtful debt contingency, but study your customers and their past records of payment because in a higher risk customer portfolio the contingency may need to be higher.
Having a forecast will also allow you to predict the effects on your cash balance of taking on that large exciting sales order, which you will have to fund until the customer pays.
Don't bury your head in the sand, check your bank balance regularly - I mean several times a week, not just when your statement arrives at the end of the month. Up date your cash forecast when you have new information, and this would likely be weekly. Have a column on the forecast at the side of the budget for the actual cash in and out as of the last day of the month and compare the two; do this as soon as you can after the month-end and adjust the forecast for the next few months based on your current performance and your view of the immediate future, but most importantly take corrective action. Bank funding is very tight, but banks and other funding bodies are still open for business. If your forecast is telling you that your bank balance is at risk of dipping into the red or below the agreed overdraft limit talk to your bank relationship manager as soon as possible. Bank lending is based on their assessment of risk, a business that shows it has a robust planning and financial control process is more likely to get support than the proverbial ostrich. Seek advice from your accountant and Business Link adviser.
Ok, but it's your business that's at risk, can you afford not to?
We can provide you with free, impartial, skilled help to do this.
That's all for this month.
Peter Mulhall
Business Adviser
Business Link - the place to go for business support
Online: www.businesslink.gov.uk
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